State
Mixed transition regime
This is a transition state, not a failed read: downward shape is building, but the market is still split between midday stress and late repricing. DA spread has widened to EUR 167.6 across the active delivery. Reserve pressure is heaviest in 12-16 while upward pricing is still alive in 20-24.
Why mixed
Downward shape pressure regime is still close behind, so the market has not resolved into one cleaner regime yet. The runner-up regime remains close enough that this state should still be read cautiously.
Recent development
FCR is now peaking at EUR 200.0 in 12-16. Late upward pressure still shows in aFRR+ at EUR 37.5 in 20-24.