Daily State

Tight system regime

The system is tightening, with day-ahead pricing and frequency reserve rising together.

Snapshot 13 May 2026, 19:30Published delivery 2026-05-13Next state Mixed transition regime

Focus

Tightness is still concentrated in reserve: FCR is strongest in 12-16 at EUR 172.00; if that remains elevated, the system stays tight even without a cleaner directional reserve lead.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Downward shape pressure regime on 12 May 2026.

Current state

Tight system regime

Next publication rotates to Mixed transition regime.

DA AVG

EUR 113.5

Spread EUR 119.0

Control layerStress lead

EUR 16.9

aFRR- average

DA Swap

EUR 44.9k

1 MW / 1 MWh

1 MW / 2 MWh EUR 84.6k

State

Tight system regime

Regime

The system is tightening, with day-ahead pricing and frequency reserve rising together.

Focus

Tightness is still concentrated in reserve: FCR is strongest in 12-16 at EUR 172.00; if that remains elevated, the system stays tight even without a cleaner directional reserve lead.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Downward shape pressure regime on 12 May 2026.

Market Surface

Market tape

Market view

Published grid

Delivery 13 May 2026

Current block 16-20 · 16:00 - 20:00

Snapshot 13 May 2026, 19:30

Strip

DA AVG

DA spread

FCR

aFRR+

aFRR-

Trend

7-day tape

Latest vs prior print

DA AVG

Delivery 13 May 2026

EUR 113.5

+22%

Spread EUR 119.0

DA spread

Published strip

EUR 119.0

-14%

Delivery 13 May 2026

FCR

Block 16-20

EUR 75.0

-33%

Crossborder EUR 75.0

aFRR+

Block 16-20

EUR 10.6

-7%

Marginal EUR 11.9 · premium +12%

aFRR-

Block 16-20

EUR 15.5

-21%

Marginal EUR 17.1 · premium +10%

Block 00-04

00:00 - 04:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 108.1

Published average

DA spread

EUR 22.5

High-low range

FCR

EUR 13.5

Crossborder EUR 15.4

aFRR+

EUR 2.6

MarginalEUR 2.7

Premium+4%

aFRR-

EUR 0.8

MarginalEUR 1.0

PremiumN/A

Block 04-08

04:00 - 08:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 127.4

Published average

DA spread

EUR 38.0

High-low range

FCR

EUR 40.0

Crossborder EUR 40.0

aFRR+

EUR 6.7

MarginalEUR 7.4

Premium+10%

aFRR-

EUR 0.7

MarginalEUR 0.8

PremiumN/A

Block 08-12

08:00 - 12:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 99.9

Published average

DA spread

EUR 69.7

High-low range

FCR

EUR 147.5

Crossborder EUR 147.5

aFRR+

EUR 12.0

MarginalEUR 14.3

Premium+19%

aFRR-

EUR 26.0

MarginalEUR 28.4

Premium+9%

Block 12-16

12:00 - 16:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 74.6

Published average

DA spread

EUR 33.0

High-low range

FCR

EUR 172.0

Crossborder EUR 172.0

aFRR+

EUR 5.0

MarginalEUR 5.4

Premium+7%

aFRR-

EUR 57.7

MarginalEUR 66.2

Premium+15%

Block 16-20

Current

16:00 - 20:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 122.2

Published average

DA spread

EUR 99.9

High-low range

FCR

EUR 75.0

Crossborder EUR 75.0

aFRR+

EUR 10.6

MarginalEUR 11.9

Premium+12%

aFRR-

EUR 15.5

MarginalEUR 17.1

Premium+10%

Block 20-24

20:00 - 00:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 149.2

Published average

DA spread

EUR 67.1

High-low range

FCR

EUR 45.0

Crossborder EUR 45.0

aFRR+

EUR 13.3

MarginalEUR 17.0

Premium+28%

aFRR-

EUR 0.6

MarginalEUR 0.7

PremiumN/A

Published pricing, spread, reserve pressure, and strip structure in one surface.

Frameworks

Core views

State · Signals · Pricing · Structural

State

Regime

Tight system regime

The system is tightening, with day-ahead pricing and frequency reserve rising together.

Latest complete 15-minute SPARX print is EUR 135.57 for 2026-05-12. Hourly-smoothed companion is EUR 87.53. Long-run 15-minute mean is near EUR 362. Canonical 15-minute and hourly-smoothed tracks are maintained in parallel. · Data basis 2026-05-12 (T-1)

DE aFRR capacity averages for the latest published delivery day.

Operational net solar and wind capacity from canonical MaStR structural tables. Hydro and biomass families are not part of this mart yet.

View

Archive and access

Latest essay

Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit

Published 25 Feb 2026

Open essay

Structural note

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Top wind remains concentrated in Niedersachsen while top solar remains concentrated in Bayern. The largest planned >=10 MW battery pipeline currently sits in Nordrhein-Westfalen at 0.9 GW. Battery-qualified FCR reached 26.3% of the FCR stack on 2026-01-01.

Access

Subscriber access opens the full terminal.

Regime, SPARX, Balancing, DA Swap, and Grid State remain available through subscriber access.

Orientation

Structural, emerging, immediate

Horizon view

Structural

Lens

Grid and storage still lag renewable build-out.

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Current read

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Use

State of the Grid

Emerging

Lens

Spread remains the clearest short-term shift.

Latest DA spread EUR 119.0.

Current read

Latest DA spread EUR 119.0.

Use

SPARX · Balancing

Immediate

Lens

Latest published state against the next published view.

Observed uses the latest published market state. Next only uses published forward data.

Observed

Tight system regime

Delivery 2026-05-13 · Day-ahead level and frequency reserve pricing are jointly elevated, pointing to a tighter system state.

Tomorrow auction published

Delivery 2026-05-14 · DA avg EUR 94.85 · spread EUR 164.86.