Daily State

Tight system regime

The system is tightening, with day-ahead pricing and frequency reserve rising together.

Snapshot 15 Jul 2026, 13:04Published delivery 2026-07-15Next state Upward shape pressure regime

Focus

Tightness is still concentrated in reserve: FCR is strongest in 12-16 at EUR 234.57; if that remains elevated, the system stays tight even without a cleaner directional reserve lead.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Mixed transition regime on 13 Jul 2026.

Current state

Tight system regime

Next publication rotates to Upward shape pressure regime.

DA AVG

EUR 136.4

Spread EUR 162.1

Control layerStress lead

EUR 15.3

aFRR- average

DA Swap

EUR 47.2k

1 MW / 1 MWh

1 MW / 2 MWh EUR 89.3k

State

Tight system regime

Regime

The system is tightening, with day-ahead pricing and frequency reserve rising together.

Focus

Tightness is still concentrated in reserve: FCR is strongest in 12-16 at EUR 234.57; if that remains elevated, the system stays tight even without a cleaner directional reserve lead.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Mixed transition regime on 13 Jul 2026.

Market Surface

Market tape

Market view

Published grid

Delivery 15 Jul 2026

Current block 12-16 · 12:00 - 16:00

Snapshot 15 Jul 2026, 13:04

Strip

DA AVG

DA spread

FCR

aFRR+

aFRR-

Trend

7-day tape

Latest vs prior print

DA AVG

Delivery 15 Jul 2026

EUR 136.4

+10%

Spread EUR 162.1

DA spread

Published strip

EUR 162.1

+15%

Delivery 15 Jul 2026

FCR

Block 12-16

EUR 234.6

+16%

Crossborder EUR 234.6

aFRR+

Block 12-16

EUR 3.7

-16%

Marginal EUR 3.9 · premium +7%

aFRR-

Block 12-16

EUR 57.2

+4%

Marginal EUR 66.0 · premium +15%

Block 00-04

00:00 - 04:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 143.4

Published average

DA spread

EUR 22.4

High-low range

FCR

EUR 17.0

Crossborder EUR 64.0

aFRR+

EUR 2.6

MarginalEUR 2.9

Premium+8%

aFRR-

EUR 0.4

MarginalEUR 0.5

PremiumN/A

Block 04-08

04:00 - 08:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 155.9

Published average

DA spread

EUR 36.6

High-low range

FCR

EUR 26.0

Crossborder EUR 52.1

aFRR+

EUR 6.1

MarginalEUR 6.6

Premium+8%

aFRR-

EUR 0.5

MarginalEUR 0.6

PremiumN/A

Block 08-12

08:00 - 12:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 124.7

Published average

DA spread

EUR 85.5

High-low range

FCR

EUR 101.4

Crossborder EUR 101.4

aFRR+

EUR 10.3

MarginalEUR 10.9

Premium+6%

aFRR-

EUR 17.1

MarginalEUR 18.5

Premium+8%

Block 12-16

Current

12:00 - 16:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 68.5

Published average

DA spread

EUR 30.4

High-low range

FCR

EUR 234.6

Crossborder EUR 234.6

aFRR+

EUR 3.7

MarginalEUR 3.9

Premium+7%

aFRR-

EUR 57.2

MarginalEUR 66.0

Premium+15%

Block 16-20

16:00 - 20:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 134.2

Published average

DA spread

EUR 127.5

High-low range

FCR

EUR 97.8

Crossborder EUR 97.8

aFRR+

EUR 10.0

MarginalEUR 10.9

Premium+9%

aFRR-

EUR 16.2

MarginalEUR 17.2

Premium+6%

Block 20-24

20:00 - 00:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 191.9

Published average

DA spread

EUR 56.1

High-low range

FCR

EUR 78.6

Crossborder EUR 78.6

aFRR+

EUR 22.1

MarginalEUR 27.1

Premium+22%

aFRR-

EUR 0.4

MarginalEUR 0.4

PremiumN/A

Published pricing, spread, reserve pressure, and strip structure in one surface.

Frameworks

Core views

State · Signals · Pricing · Structural

State

Regime

Tight system regime

The system is tightening, with day-ahead pricing and frequency reserve rising together.

Latest complete 15-minute SPARX print is EUR 224.28 for 2026-07-13. Hourly-smoothed companion is EUR 78.35. Long-run 15-minute mean is near EUR 360. Canonical 15-minute and hourly-smoothed tracks are maintained in parallel. · Data basis 2026-07-13 (T-2)

DE aFRR capacity averages for the latest published delivery day.

Operational net solar and wind capacity from canonical MaStR structural tables. Hydro and biomass families are not part of this mart yet.

View

Archive and access

Latest essay

Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit

Published 25 Feb 2026

Open essay

Structural note

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Top wind remains concentrated in Niedersachsen while top solar remains concentrated in Bayern. The largest planned >=10 MW battery pipeline currently sits in Nordrhein-Westfalen at 0.9 GW. Battery-qualified FCR reached 26.3% of the FCR stack on 2026-01-01.

Access

Subscriber access opens the full terminal.

Regime, SPARX, Balancing, DA Swap, and Grid State remain available through subscriber access.

Orientation

Structural, emerging, immediate

Horizon view

Structural

Lens

Grid and storage still lag renewable build-out.

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Current read

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Use

State of the Grid

Emerging

Lens

Spread remains the clearest short-term shift.

Latest DA spread EUR 162.1.

Current read

Latest DA spread EUR 162.1.

Use

SPARX · Balancing

Immediate

Lens

Latest published state against the next published view.

Observed uses the latest published market state. Next only uses published forward data.

Observed

Tight system regime

Delivery 2026-07-15 · Day-ahead level and frequency reserve pricing are jointly elevated, pointing to a tighter system state.

Tomorrow auction published

Delivery 2026-07-16 · DA avg EUR 159.86 · spread EUR 257.66.