Daily State

Upward shape pressure regime

Upward shape is taking control, with tightening pressure building through the balancing layer.

Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 23:01Published delivery 2026-10-14Next state Tight system regime

Focus

Upward correction is still leading: aFRR+ is strongest in 16-20 at EUR 32.47; if that stays firm, the system remains tight.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Tight system regime on 13 Oct 2026.

Current state

Upward shape pressure regime

Next publication rotates to Tight system regime.

DA AVG

EUR 179.0

Spread EUR 215.9

Control layerLead signal

EUR 11.7

aFRR+ average

DA Swap

EUR 51.7k

1 MW / 1 MWh

1 MW / 2 MWh EUR 98.8k

State

Upward shape pressure regime

Regime

Upward shape is taking control, with tightening pressure building through the balancing layer.

Focus

Upward correction is still leading: aFRR+ is strongest in 16-20 at EUR 32.47; if that stays firm, the system remains tight.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Tight system regime on 13 Oct 2026.

Market Surface

Market tape

Market view

Published grid

Delivery 14 Oct 2026

Current block 20-24 · 20:00 - 00:00

Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 23:01

Strip

DA AVG

DA spread

FCR

aFRR+

aFRR-

Trend

7-day tape

Latest vs prior print

DA AVG

Delivery 14 Oct 2026

EUR 179.0

+12%

Spread EUR 215.9

DA spread

Published strip

EUR 215.9

+57%

Delivery 14 Oct 2026

FCR

Block 20-24

EUR 59.7

+22%

Crossborder EUR 59.7

aFRR+

Block 20-24

EUR 13.8

+14%

Marginal EUR 17.2 · premium +25%

aFRR-

Block 20-24

EUR 0.8

-5%

Marginal EUR 1.0 · premium +90%

Block 00-04

00:00 - 04:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 125.5

Published average

DA spread

EUR 7.9

High-low range

FCR

EUR 34.9

Crossborder EUR 40.0

aFRR+

EUR 1.4

MarginalEUR 1.5

Premium+10%

aFRR-

EUR 2.7

MarginalEUR 8.7

Premium+218%

Block 04-08

04:00 - 08:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 167.0

Published average

DA spread

EUR 113.7

High-low range

FCR

EUR 35.4

Crossborder EUR 48.0

aFRR+

EUR 5.4

MarginalEUR 6.2

Premium+15%

aFRR-

EUR 1.9

MarginalEUR 6.1

Premium+228%

Block 08-12

08:00 - 12:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 196.1

Published average

DA spread

EUR 143.2

High-low range

FCR

EUR 75.0

Crossborder EUR 80.8

aFRR+

EUR 14.6

MarginalEUR 28.7

Premium+96%

aFRR-

EUR 5.6

MarginalEUR 6.8

Premium+21%

Block 12-16

12:00 - 16:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 108.6

Published average

DA spread

EUR 57.1

High-low range

FCR

EUR 92.0

Crossborder EUR 100.0

aFRR+

EUR 2.5

MarginalEUR 5.5

Premium+117%

aFRR-

EUR 21.9

MarginalEUR 32.7

Premium+49%

Block 16-20

16:00 - 20:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 245.6

Published average

DA spread

EUR 160.8

High-low range

FCR

EUR 130.4

Crossborder EUR 130.4

aFRR+

EUR 32.5

MarginalEUR 43.3

Premium+33%

aFRR-

EUR 5.4

MarginalEUR 6.5

Premium+21%

Block 20-24

Current

20:00 - 00:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 231.2

Published average

DA spread

EUR 103.8

High-low range

FCR

EUR 59.7

Crossborder EUR 59.7

aFRR+

EUR 13.8

MarginalEUR 17.2

Premium+25%

aFRR-

EUR 0.8

MarginalEUR 1.0

PremiumN/A

Published pricing, spread, reserve pressure, and strip structure in one surface.

Frameworks

Core views

State · Signals · Pricing · Structural

State

Regime

Upward shape pressure regime

Upward shape is taking control, with tightening pressure building through the balancing layer.

Latest complete 15-minute SPARX print is EUR 143.60 for 2026-10-13. Hourly-smoothed companion is EUR 95.99. Long-run 15-minute mean is near EUR 376. Canonical 15-minute and hourly-smoothed tracks are maintained in parallel. · Data basis 2026-10-13 (T-1)

DE aFRR capacity averages for the latest published delivery day.

Operational net solar and wind capacity from canonical MaStR structural tables. Hydro and biomass families are not part of this mart yet.

View

Archive and access

Latest essay

Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit

Published 25 Feb 2026

Open essay

Structural note

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Top wind remains concentrated in Niedersachsen while top solar remains concentrated in Bayern. The largest planned >=10 MW battery pipeline currently sits in Nordrhein-Westfalen at 0.9 GW. Battery-qualified FCR reached 26.3% of the FCR stack on 2026-01-01.

Access

Subscriber access opens the full terminal.

Regime, SPARX, Balancing, DA Swap, and Grid State remain available through subscriber access.

Orientation

Structural, emerging, immediate

Horizon view

Structural

Lens

Grid and storage still lag renewable build-out.

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Current read

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Use

State of the Grid

Emerging

Lens

Spread remains the clearest short-term shift.

Latest DA spread EUR 215.9.

Current read

Latest DA spread EUR 215.9.

Use

SPARX · Balancing

Immediate

Lens

Latest published state against the next published view.

Observed uses the latest published market state. Next only uses published forward data.

Observed

Upward shape pressure regime

Delivery 2026-10-14 · Observed price shape is concentrated in the upward-facing side of the curve.

Tomorrow auction published

Delivery 2026-10-15 · DA avg EUR 187.30 · spread EUR 180.65.