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German power market briefing
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Daily State

Surprise dislocation regime

Intraday settlement is pulling away from the day-ahead auction, signaling a live dislocation rather than a clean continuation.

Snapshot 29 Aug 2026, 20:01Published delivery 2026-08-29Next state Surprise dislocation regime
Open regimeOpen market viewSign in
Focus
Dislocation is still the key risk: Watch whether intraday continues to pull away from the auction view or starts to settle back into range.
Recent development
The regime rotated from Tight system regime on 28 Aug 2026.
Current state
Surprise dislocation regime
Surprise dislocation regime still holds into the next publication.
DA AVG
EUR 86.4
Spread EUR 219.5
Control layerStress lead
EUR 20.3
aFRR- average
DA Swap
EUR 49.5k
1 MW / 1 MWh
1 MW / 2 MWh EUR 94.2k
State

Surprise dislocation regime

Regime

Intraday settlement is pulling away from the day-ahead auction, signaling a live dislocation rather than a clean continuation.

Focus
Dislocation is still the key risk: Watch whether intraday continues to pull away from the auction view or starts to settle back into range.
Recent development
The regime rotated from Tight system regime on 28 Aug 2026.
Market Surface

Market tape

Market view
Published grid
Delivery 29 Aug 2026
Current block 20-24 · 20:00 - 00:00
Snapshot 29 Aug 2026, 20:01
Strip
DA AVG
DA spread
FCR
aFRR+
aFRR-
Trend
7-day tape
Latest vs prior print
DA AVG
Delivery 29 Aug 2026
EUR 86.4
-40%
Spread EUR 219.5
DA spread
Published strip
EUR 219.5
+115%
Delivery 29 Aug 2026
FCR
Block 20-24
EUR 55.0
-2%
Crossborder EUR 55.0
aFRR+
Block 20-24
EUR 12.4
+20%
Marginal EUR 21.6 · premium +75%
aFRR-
Block 20-24
EUR 0.5
+7%
Marginal EUR 0.5 · premium +10%
Block 00-04
00:00 - 04:00
Published strip
DA AVG
EUR 109.1
Published average
DA spread
EUR 50.4
High-low range
FCR
EUR 16.8
Crossborder EUR 60.1
aFRR+
EUR 2.4
MarginalEUR 3.3
Premium+41%
aFRR-
EUR 0.7
MarginalEUR 1.2
PremiumN/A
Block 04-08
04:00 - 08:00
Published strip
DA AVG
EUR 97.0
Published average
DA spread
EUR 17.7
High-low range
FCR
EUR 13.0
Crossborder EUR 82.3
aFRR+
EUR 2.6
MarginalEUR 2.9
Premium+10%
aFRR-
EUR 0.9
MarginalEUR 2.0
PremiumN/A
Block 08-12
08:00 - 12:00
Published strip
DA AVG
EUR 15.8
Published average
DA spread
EUR 107.7
High-low range
FCR
EUR 129.6
Crossborder EUR 129.6
aFRR+
EUR 6.5
MarginalEUR 7.1
Premium+10%
aFRR-
EUR 27.0
MarginalEUR 31.9
Premium+18%
Block 12-16
12:00 - 16:00
Published strip
DA AVG
EUR -1.2
Published average
DA spread
EUR 2.0
High-low range
FCR
EUR 138.9
Crossborder EUR 138.9
aFRR+
EUR 1.6
MarginalEUR 1.7
Premium+10%
aFRR-
EUR 68.2
MarginalEUR 78.7
Premium+15%
Block 16-20
16:00 - 20:00
Published strip
DA AVG
EUR 127.0
Published average
DA spread
EUR 214.5
High-low range
FCR
EUR 116.2
Crossborder EUR 116.2
aFRR+
EUR 5.9
MarginalEUR 7.1
Premium+21%
aFRR-
EUR 24.7
MarginalEUR 31.7
Premium+28%
Block 20-24
Current
20:00 - 00:00
Published strip
DA AVG
EUR 170.4
Published average
DA spread
EUR 77.8
High-low range
FCR
EUR 55.0
Crossborder EUR 55.0
aFRR+
EUR 12.4
MarginalEUR 21.6
Premium+75%
aFRR-
EUR 0.5
MarginalEUR 0.5
PremiumN/A
Published pricing, spread, reserve pressure, and strip structure in one surface.
Frameworks

Core views

State · Signals · Pricing · Structural
State
Regime
Surprise dislocation regime
Intraday settlement is pulling away from the day-ahead auction, signaling a live dislocation rather than a clean continuation.
View
Signals
SPARX
3206.10 EUR/MWh
Latest complete 15-minute SPARX print is EUR 3206.10 for 2026-08-28. Hourly-smoothed companion is EUR 1544.19. Long-run 15-minute mean is near EUR 364. Canonical 15-minute and hourly-smoothed tracks are maintained in parallel. · Data basis 2026-08-28 (T-1)
View
Signals
Balancing
EUR 5.21 / EUR 20.33
DE aFRR capacity averages for the latest published delivery day.
View
Pricing
DA Swap
EUR 49.5k
1 MW / 1 MWh
View
Structural
Grid State
184.4 GW
Operational net solar and wind capacity from canonical MaStR structural tables. Hydro and biomass families are not part of this mart yet.
View
Archive

Archive and access

Latest essay
Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit
Published 25 Feb 2026
Open essay
Structural note
184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.
Top wind remains concentrated in Niedersachsen while top solar remains concentrated in Bayern. The largest planned >=10 MW battery pipeline currently sits in Nordrhein-Westfalen at 0.9 GW. Battery-qualified FCR reached 26.3% of the FCR stack on 2026-01-01.
Access
Subscriber access opens the full terminal.
Regime, SPARX, Balancing, DA Swap, and Grid State remain available through subscriber access.
Sign inBriefing
Orientation

Structural, emerging, immediate

Horizon view
Structural
Lens
Grid and storage still lag renewable build-out.
184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.
Current read
184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.
Use
State of the Grid
Emerging
Lens
Spread remains the clearest short-term shift.
Latest DA spread EUR 219.5.
Current read
Latest DA spread EUR 219.5.
Use
SPARX · Balancing
Immediate
Lens
Latest published state against the next published view.
Observed uses the latest published market state. Next only uses published forward data.
Observed
Surprise dislocation regime
Delivery 2026-08-29 · Day-ahead shape and settlement dislocation are jointly elevated versus history.
Next
Tomorrow auction published
Delivery 2026-08-30 · DA avg EUR 75.63 · spread EUR 213.46.