Daily State

Downward shape pressure regime

Downward shape is taking control, with oversupply pressure building through the balancing layer.

Snapshot 30 May 2026, 17:30Published delivery 2026-05-30Next state Upward shape pressure regime

Focus

Downward correction is still leading: aFRR- is strongest in 12-16 at EUR 85.83; if that broadens, oversupply pressure is still building.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Mixed transition regime on 29 May 2026.

Current state

Downward shape pressure regime

Next publication rotates to Upward shape pressure regime.

DA AVG

EUR 85.9

Spread EUR 178.5

Control layerStress lead

EUR 25.3

aFRR- average

DA Swap

EUR 45.6k

1 MW / 1 MWh

1 MW / 2 MWh EUR 86.0k

State

Downward shape pressure regime

Regime

Downward shape is taking control, with oversupply pressure building through the balancing layer.

Focus

Downward correction is still leading: aFRR- is strongest in 12-16 at EUR 85.83; if that broadens, oversupply pressure is still building.

Recent development

The regime rotated from Mixed transition regime on 29 May 2026.

Market Surface

Market tape

Market view

Published grid

Delivery 30 May 2026

Current block 16-20 · 16:00 - 20:00

Snapshot 30 May 2026, 17:30

Strip

DA AVG

DA spread

FCR

aFRR+

aFRR-

Trend

7-day tape

Latest vs prior print

DA AVG

Delivery 30 May 2026

EUR 85.9

-17%

Spread EUR 178.5

DA spread

Published strip

EUR 178.5

-32%

Delivery 30 May 2026

FCR

Block 16-20

EUR 84.5

-15%

Crossborder EUR 84.5

aFRR+

Block 16-20

EUR 7.6

-24%

Marginal EUR 8.2 · premium +8%

aFRR-

Block 16-20

EUR 28.7

+19%

Marginal EUR 34.3 · premium +20%

Block 00-04

00:00 - 04:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 127.2

Published average

DA spread

EUR 24.9

High-low range

FCR

EUR 13.0

Crossborder EUR 16.0

aFRR+

EUR 4.1

MarginalEUR 6.7

Premium+66%

aFRR-

EUR 0.5

MarginalEUR 0.6

PremiumN/A

Block 04-08

04:00 - 08:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 119.6

Published average

DA spread

EUR 35.5

High-low range

FCR

EUR 29.3

Crossborder EUR 29.3

aFRR+

EUR 7.4

MarginalEUR 8.4

Premium+13%

aFRR-

EUR 0.4

MarginalEUR 0.6

PremiumN/A

Block 08-12

08:00 - 12:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 32.1

Published average

DA spread

EUR 117.1

High-low range

FCR

EUR 138.6

Crossborder EUR 138.6

aFRR+

EUR 9.0

MarginalEUR 9.7

Premium+8%

aFRR-

EUR 35.9

MarginalEUR 40.6

Premium+13%

Block 12-16

12:00 - 16:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR -0.6

Published average

DA spread

EUR 2.0

High-low range

FCR

EUR 180.0

Crossborder EUR 180.0

aFRR+

EUR 2.5

MarginalEUR 2.8

Premium+13%

aFRR-

EUR 85.8

MarginalEUR 95.8

Premium+12%

Block 16-20

Current

16:00 - 20:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 78.1

Published average

DA spread

EUR 155.6

High-low range

FCR

EUR 84.5

Crossborder EUR 84.5

aFRR+

EUR 7.6

MarginalEUR 8.2

Premium+8%

aFRR-

EUR 28.7

MarginalEUR 34.3

Premium+20%

Block 20-24

20:00 - 00:00

Published strip

DA AVG

EUR 158.7

Published average

DA spread

EUR 37.7

High-low range

FCR

EUR 80.0

Crossborder EUR 80.0

aFRR+

EUR 26.8

MarginalEUR 32.5

Premium+21%

aFRR-

EUR 0.5

MarginalEUR 0.6

PremiumN/A

Published pricing, spread, reserve pressure, and strip structure in one surface.

Frameworks

Core views

State · Signals · Pricing · Structural

State

Regime

Downward shape pressure regime

Downward shape is taking control, with oversupply pressure building through the balancing layer.

Latest complete 15-minute SPARX print is EUR 327.76 for 2026-05-29. Hourly-smoothed companion is EUR 223.20. Long-run 15-minute mean is near EUR 360. Canonical 15-minute and hourly-smoothed tracks are maintained in parallel. · Data basis 2026-05-29 (T-1)

DE aFRR capacity averages for the latest published delivery day.

Operational net solar and wind capacity from canonical MaStR structural tables. Hydro and biomass families are not part of this mart yet.

View

Archive and access

Latest essay

Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit

Published 25 Feb 2026

Open essay

Structural note

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Top wind remains concentrated in Niedersachsen while top solar remains concentrated in Bayern. The largest planned >=10 MW battery pipeline currently sits in Nordrhein-Westfalen at 0.9 GW. Battery-qualified FCR reached 26.3% of the FCR stack on 2026-01-01.

Access

Subscriber access opens the full terminal.

Regime, SPARX, Balancing, DA Swap, and Grid State remain available through subscriber access.

Orientation

Structural, emerging, immediate

Horizon view

Structural

Lens

Grid and storage still lag renewable build-out.

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Current read

184.4 GW operational solar + wind, 26.1 GW operational storage, and 4.6 GW planned grid-scale BESS, plus 1.35 GW battery-qualified FCR.

Use

State of the Grid

Emerging

Lens

Spread remains the clearest short-term shift.

Latest DA spread EUR 178.5.

Current read

Latest DA spread EUR 178.5.

Use

SPARX · Balancing

Immediate

Lens

Latest published state against the next published view.

Observed uses the latest published market state. Next only uses published forward data.

Observed

Downward shape pressure regime

Delivery 2026-05-30 · Observed price shape is concentrated in the downward-facing side of the curve.

Tomorrow auction published

Delivery 2026-05-31 · DA avg EUR 89.90 · spread EUR 162.17.