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Daily State Surface

Snapshot 6 Mar 2026, 03:43Today delivery 2026-03-06

This is the shared live market surface. The subscriber workspace adds the deeper framework pages.

Today state

Upward shape pressure regime

Today delivery 2026-03-06

Observed price shape is concentrated in the upward-facing side of the curve.

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Data highlight

EUR 287.8

SPARX

Quiet-day read · Today · Delivery 6 Mar · Percentile 69

SPARX leads the current slate, but the day is still relatively quiet: percentile 69 versus comparable history.

Latest essay

Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit

Published 25 Feb 2026 · Stratnergy

State

Market state

The current regime read, its uncertainty, and what to watch next.

Regime

Regime map

Live

Observed price shape is concentrated in the upward-facing side of the curve.

Current location

Mini-map of the current regime. The marker shows where today sits in state space.

Current state

Upward shape pressure regime

Break + ambiguity · Observed state is rotating while the local read remains ambiguous.

Last model run 5 Mar 2026, 21:59 (Berlin).

State ranking

1. Upward shape pressure regime0.800

2. Surprise dislocation regime0.759

3. Downward shape pressure regime0.737

Close read: top-two spread is 4.1 points.

What to watch

Watch for continued upward correction need: aFRR+ hotspot is marginal-16-20 at 47.87; if that stays firm, the system remains tight.

Preview (provisional)

Tomorrow (6 Mar) currently points to Mixed transition regime.

As of 5 Mar 2026, 21:59 (Berlin). Tomorrow preview is recalculated as new DA/reserve publications or corrections arrive.

1. Mixed transition regime0.980

2. Tight system regime0.963

High revision risk: top-two spread is 1.7 points, so reruns can rotate the winner.

Upward shape pressure regime · current market-state read

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Signals

SPARX

v1.0

The daily range of 15-minute ID-AEP minus Day-Ahead spreads.

Headline figure

287.82 EUR/MWh

Key line

287.82 EUR/MWh on the latest complete day.

DA DE-LU Spread

EUR 171.9

+241% vs prior print

Latest complete 15-minute SPARX print is EUR 287.82 for 2026-03-04. Hourly-smoothed companion is EUR 254.89. Long-run 15-minute mean is near EUR 364. Market regime: Upward shape pressure regime. · Data basis 2026-03-04 (T-2)

Understanding SPARX · 14 Feb 2026

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Signals

Balancing

v2.0

German balancing markets read as the interface between reserve procurement and physical grid correction.

Headline figure

EUR 38.7

aFRR+ 16-20

Key line

aFRR+ 16-20 cleared at EUR 38.7 with marginal EUR 55.9.

aFRR+ 16-20

EUR 38.7

Marginal EUR 55.9

Front-page balancing preview uses a product-level aFRR spotlight rather than an all-block daily average.

Seasonal Revenue/aFRR orbit · 25 Feb 2026

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Pricing

Curve and market prices

DA Swap valuation plus day-ahead, FCR, and aFRR pricing across the active delivery surface.

Pricing

DA Swap

Preview

Trailing 12m realized annualized value of day-ahead curve shape, expressed as canonical hourly high-low swap structures.

Headline figure

EUR 43,876/year

1 MW / 1 MWh

Annualized ladder

1 MW / 1 MWh

EUR 43.9k

1 MW / 2 MWh

EUR 82.2k

1 MW / 4 MWh

EUR 142.4k

Why it matters

What hourly day-ahead curve shape is the market paying for?

The subscriber workbench turns these realized values into a next-month scenario view for 1h, 2h, and 4h contracts.

Historical coverage spans roughly the last 12 months across the full contract ladder.

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Markets

Market moves

Today delivery 2026-03-06

DA DE-LU Average

EUR 108.8

-13%

7-day comparison · latest vs prior print

DA DE-LU Spread

EUR 171.9

+241%

7-day comparison · latest vs prior print

Market framework

FCR and aFRR by block

Current block 00-04

Block 00-04

00:00 - 04:00

Current

DA DE-LU

EUR 107.0

Spread EUR 7.6

FCR

EUR 12.5

Crossborder N/A

aFRR+

EUR 1.9

Marginal EUR 2.2

aFRR-

EUR 1.4

Marginal EUR 1.5

Block 04-08

04:00 - 08:00

DA DE-LU

EUR 144.9

Spread EUR 104.5

FCR

EUR 47.8

Crossborder N/A

aFRR+

EUR 15.9

Marginal EUR 21.0

aFRR-

EUR 1.0

Marginal EUR 1.1

Block 08-12

08:00 - 12:00

DA DE-LU

EUR 103.4

Spread EUR 137.8

FCR

EUR 77.1

Crossborder N/A

aFRR+

EUR 11.9

Marginal EUR 13.5

aFRR-

EUR 14.4

Marginal EUR 19.0

Block 12-16

12:00 - 16:00

DA DE-LU

EUR 70.6

Spread EUR 88.3

FCR

EUR 108.5

Crossborder N/A

aFRR+

EUR 5.7

Marginal EUR 6.6

aFRR-

EUR 35.9

Marginal EUR 54.7

Block 16-20

16:00 - 20:00

DA DE-LU

EUR 181.8

Spread EUR 158.1

FCR

EUR 94.4

Crossborder N/A

aFRR+

EUR 38.7

Marginal EUR 55.9

aFRR-

EUR 0.6

Marginal EUR 0.7

Block 20-24

20:00 - 00:00

DA DE-LU

EUR 135.2

Spread EUR 53.7

FCR

EUR 22.8

Crossborder N/A

aFRR+

EUR 6.8

Marginal EUR 9.3

aFRR-

EUR 0.5

Marginal EUR 0.6

Snapshot 6 Mar 2026, 03:43 · methodology v1.0 · between midnight and publication the block strip stays focused on today only.

Subscriber view adds sparklines, current state, and today-versus-tomorrow detail.

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Structural

System backdrop

Slower-moving conditions in the grid, storage base, and physical system backdrop.

Structural

State of the Grid

v1.0

A slower-moving framework for structural pressure in the German power system.

Headline figure

232 GW

Key line

Installed renewable capacity in the February 2026 report.

Reference

18 Feb 2026

Germany's Asynchronous Transition: Data, Decoupling, and the Gridlock of 2026

Installed renewable capacity in the February 2026 report.

Germany's Asynchronous Transition: Data, Decoupling, and the Gridlock of 2026 · 18 Feb 2026

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